This is the data behind the 2024 study's sharpest warning. The producer-success collapse at the smallest tier — three straight years of decline — is the operational evidence for the "high-watermark with a crack" reading of the year. This is the producer-sourcing slice of the Best Practices strategic context; the year's narrative is the 2024 context, and the industry-wide picture is the talent deficit.
§ 01 · Hiring & successThe smallest tier breaks.
The headline is the floor. The smallest tier's five-year producer success rate fell to 21.0% — meaning roughly four in five producer hires fail to validate — while its hiring rate slipped again to 15.8%. The mid- and large tiers stabilized, and the largest tier's hiring rebounded to a near-universal 97.9% after the 2023 pause. Top-quartile success rates remain strong (67–85% at the larger tiers), reaffirming that hiring quality, not size, is the variable.
| Producer pipeline (2024) | % hiring | Success (avg) | Success (top quartile) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $1.25M | 15.8% | 21.0% | 24.5% |
| $2.5M–$5M | 30.6% | 48.7% | 85.0% |
| $5M–$10M | 68.6% | 54.0% | 80.0% |
| $10M–$25M | 79.2% | 50.4% | 76.3% |
| Over $25M | 97.9% | 50.0% | 67.0% |
§ 02 · The three-year collapse66% to 21%.
The smallest tier's trajectory is the most important number in the producer data: 65.9% → 39.5% → 21.0%, a 45-point cumulative fall in two years. The mid-tiers softened then stabilized; the largest tier held near 50%. Only the smallest band continued to deteriorate — the traditional "build your own producers" model is functionally dead there.
| Five-year producer success rate | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $1.25M | 65.9% | 39.5% | 21.0% |
| $2.5M–$5M | 64.0% | 56.7% | 48.7% |
| $5M–$10M | 54.2% | 50.2% | 54.0% |
| Over $25M | 50.4% | 47.3% | 50.0% |
§ 03 · The large-tier reboundHiring up, wages up.
At the other end of the market, the largest agencies resumed aggressive hiring (97.9%) and paid up to do it — average first-year producer wages at the top tier rose to roughly $139K, a 35% climb over two years that signals hiring senior, specialized producers rather than entry-level. Mid-tier hiring recovered too ($10M–$25M rebounded to 79.2%). The result is a widening structural gap: the largest agencies are out-investing in the producer pipeline exactly as the smallest lose the ability to build one.
- The smallest-tier pipeline is broken. A 21.0% five-year success rate means ~4 in 5 hires fail to validate.
- A 45-point collapse. The smallest tier's success fell 65.9% → 39.5% → 21.0% over two years.
- Mid-tiers stabilized. The $5M–$10M band recovered to 54.0% after 2023's dip.
- Large-tier hiring rebounded. Near-universal again at 97.9% after the 2023 pause.
- Top-tier wages spiked. ~$139K average first-year wage — senior, specialized hires, +35% over two years.
The benchmark is the baseline, not the price.
Best Practices benchmarks don't value an agency — they're the operating baseline a valuation is built on. The 21% smallest-tier success rate is now a structural valuation input: a sub-$1.25M target without producer equity or a formal development program is a producer-flight risk, and a buyer prices that into the multiple. The deeper read is strategic — at a 21% hit rate, "build over buy" is functionally non-viable at the smallest tier, so acquiring an established book is the only capital-rational growth path. That is the demand signal underneath marketplace activity in this segment, and the same force described in the succession-planning crisis.
How producer quality flows into a valuation is the financial & transactional mechanics reference.
What BPS measures. The Best Practices Study tracks the operating and financial results of top-performing agencies, segmented by revenue tier. This brief reflects the 2024 producer-hiring section (286 agencies, calendar 2023 results) plus the 2022–2024 trend.
Producer success rate. The share of producers hired in the past five years still producing for the agency; top-quartile is the top 25% of agencies, not producers.
Smallest-tier caveat. Sub-$1.25M figures rest on a small sample; the three-year decline is the robust signal even where a single-year wage figure is noisy.
Frequency. The study publishes annually. Milly Books refreshes this brief with each new edition.