The 2023 data is where the producer-pipeline story turns. The "systemic young-talent shortage" the year's narrative named as a megatrend shows up here as a measurable decline — sharpest at the smallest tier. Read against the 2022 baseline, the crack is visible. This is the producer-sourcing slice of the Best Practices strategic context; the year's narrative is the 2023 context, and the industry-wide picture is the talent deficit.
§ 01 · Hiring & successThe decline begins.
Success rates fell in most tiers, and the smallest band led the drop — its five-year success rate collapsed from 65.9% to 39.5%, a 26-point fall in one study. At the same time the largest tier's near-universal hiring cadence paused, dropping from 97.8% to 87.2% — roughly one in eight large agencies hired no producer that year.
| Producer pipeline (2023) | % hiring | Success (avg) | Δ success vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $1.25M | 18.2% | 39.5% | −26.4 pts |
| $2.5M–$5M | 48.8% | 56.7% | −7.3 pts |
| $5M–$10M | 66.1% | 50.2% | −4.0 pts |
| $10M–$25M | 64.8% | 49.9% | −3.9 pts |
| Over $25M | 87.2% | 47.3% | −3.1 pts |
§ 02 · The large-tier responseInvesting in the pipeline.
The largest agencies responded to the talent squeeze by building pipeline. Targeted college recruiting at the largest tier jumped sharply year over year — from 50% to roughly 70% adoption — as big agencies invested in next-generation producers. Social-media recruiting stayed near-universal (94%), and mentorship and team-selling adoption held in the high 80s.
| Year-over-year shift (2022 → 2023) | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate, smallest tier | 65.9% | 39.5% |
| % hiring, over $25M | 97.8% | 87.2% |
| College recruiting, over $25M | 50.0% | 70.2% |
| First-year wage, smallest tier | $53,443 | $20,210 |
§ 03 · The sourcing shiftRecruiting younger, from within.
Large agencies also shifted their sourcing toward "under-35 from within the industry" — recruiting younger producers who already have industry experience, often through lateral moves. The smallest tier continued to rely heavily on outside-the-industry hires, the slower and less certain path. The wage collapse at the smallest tier (an average first-year wage that more than halved) reflects small-sample volatility, but the success-rate decline is the robust, structural signal.
- The smallest tier's success rate fell sharply. 65.9% → 39.5% in one study — the first leg of a multi-year decline.
- The largest tier paused hiring. Near-universal cadence dropped to 87.2% — roughly one in eight didn't hire.
- Big agencies built pipeline. College recruiting at the top jumped ~20 points to 70%.
- Sourcing shifted to younger industry talent. "Under-35 from within" rose at the larger tiers.
- Success declined in most tiers. A broad, not isolated, softening of the pipeline.
The benchmark is the baseline, not the price.
Best Practices benchmarks don't value an agency — they're the operating baseline a valuation is built on. The 2023 decline resets the bar a buyer benchmarks against: tier-average success rates are now materially lower (40–57% versus 2022's 50–66%), so a target above the latest-year average is meaningfully de-risked. At the smallest tier, a 39.5% success rate makes the "build over buy" path increasingly capital-inefficient — acquiring an established book is the more rational growth route, the demand signal behind marketplace activity in this tier.
How producer quality flows into a valuation is the financial & transactional mechanics reference; the trough is the 2024 producer data.
What BPS measures. The Best Practices Study tracks the operating and financial results of top-performing agencies, segmented by revenue tier. This brief reflects the 2023 producer-hiring section (286 agencies, calendar 2022 results).
Producer success rate. The share of producers hired in the past five years still producing for the agency.
Smallest-tier caveat. Sub-$1.25M wage figures rest on a small sample and are volatile; the success-rate decline is the robust multi-year signal.
Frequency. The study publishes annually. Milly Books refreshes this brief with each new edition.