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Data M02 The Market · Agency Benchmarks

The pipeline starts to crack.

Producer hiring and five-year success rates from the 2023 Best Practices Study, by revenue tier. Against the 2022 baseline, the warning signs appear — the smallest tier's success rate fell sharply, and the largest tier paused hiring for the first time in years.

The 2023 data is where the producer-pipeline story turns. The "systemic young-talent shortage" the year's narrative named as a megatrend shows up here as a measurable decline — sharpest at the smallest tier. Read against the 2022 baseline, the crack is visible. This is the producer-sourcing slice of the Best Practices strategic context; the year's narrative is the 2023 context, and the industry-wide picture is the talent deficit.

§ 01 · Hiring & successThe decline begins.

Success rates fell in most tiers, and the smallest band led the drop — its five-year success rate collapsed from 65.9% to 39.5%, a 26-point fall in one study. At the same time the largest tier's near-universal hiring cadence paused, dropping from 97.8% to 87.2% — roughly one in eight large agencies hired no producer that year.

Producer pipeline (2023)% hiringSuccess (avg)Δ success vs 2022
Under $1.25M18.2%39.5%−26.4 pts
$2.5M–$5M48.8%56.7%−7.3 pts
$5M–$10M66.1%50.2%−4.0 pts
$10M–$25M64.8%49.9%−3.9 pts
Over $25M87.2%47.3%−3.1 pts

§ 02 · The large-tier responseInvesting in the pipeline.

The largest agencies responded to the talent squeeze by building pipeline. Targeted college recruiting at the largest tier jumped sharply year over year — from 50% to roughly 70% adoption — as big agencies invested in next-generation producers. Social-media recruiting stayed near-universal (94%), and mentorship and team-selling adoption held in the high 80s.

Year-over-year shift (2022 → 2023)20222023
Success rate, smallest tier65.9%39.5%
% hiring, over $25M97.8%87.2%
College recruiting, over $25M50.0%70.2%
First-year wage, smallest tier$53,443$20,210

§ 03 · The sourcing shiftRecruiting younger, from within.

Large agencies also shifted their sourcing toward "under-35 from within the industry" — recruiting younger producers who already have industry experience, often through lateral moves. The smallest tier continued to rely heavily on outside-the-industry hires, the slower and less certain path. The wage collapse at the smallest tier (an average first-year wage that more than halved) reflects small-sample volatility, but the success-rate decline is the robust, structural signal.

Key characteristics of the data
  • The smallest tier's success rate fell sharply. 65.9% → 39.5% in one study — the first leg of a multi-year decline.
  • The largest tier paused hiring. Near-universal cadence dropped to 87.2% — roughly one in eight didn't hire.
  • Big agencies built pipeline. College recruiting at the top jumped ~20 points to 70%.
  • Sourcing shifted to younger industry talent. "Under-35 from within" rose at the larger tiers.
  • Success declined in most tiers. A broad, not isolated, softening of the pipeline.
What it means for M&A

The benchmark is the baseline, not the price.

Best Practices benchmarks don't value an agency — they're the operating baseline a valuation is built on. The 2023 decline resets the bar a buyer benchmarks against: tier-average success rates are now materially lower (40–57% versus 2022's 50–66%), so a target above the latest-year average is meaningfully de-risked. At the smallest tier, a 39.5% success rate makes the "build over buy" path increasingly capital-inefficient — acquiring an established book is the more rational growth route, the demand signal behind marketplace activity in this tier.

How producer quality flows into a valuation is the financial & transactional mechanics reference; the trough is the 2024 producer data.

Methodology notes

What BPS measures. The Best Practices Study tracks the operating and financial results of top-performing agencies, segmented by revenue tier. This brief reflects the 2023 producer-hiring section (286 agencies, calendar 2022 results).

Producer success rate. The share of producers hired in the past five years still producing for the agency.

Smallest-tier caveat. Sub-$1.25M wage figures rest on a small sample and are volatile; the success-rate decline is the robust multi-year signal.

Frequency. The study publishes annually. Milly Books refreshes this brief with each new edition.

The strategic-context data

Carrier & producer, by year.

Open the strategic-context explainer →

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