2025 closes the deal-volume series where it makes the most sense to close: at the floor of the new normal, with a count that essentially matches the pre-pandemic baseline. This is the data; the era it completes is the new-normal-era explainer.
§ 01 · The year in contextBack to 2019.
2025 reached 695 announced transactions, down 12% and roughly 24% below the five-year average — the lowest annual count since 2019's 649. The fourth quarter's 157 deals were the slowest Q4 since 2019, nearly half the five-year Q4 average. Monthly volume ranged from the low-40s to the low-80s with no year-end surge — the steady cadence of a market that has found its equilibrium rather than one in retreat.
| Year | Announced deals | YoY change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,108 | +43% |
| 2022 | 1,031 | −7% |
| 2023 | 782 | −24% |
| 2024 | 787 | −6% |
| 2025 | 695 | −12% |
§ 02 · Who was buyingA seven-year PE band.
Capital-backed buyers held around 73% — and with it, the PE/Hybrid share has now stayed inside a roughly 71–78% band for seven consecutive years (2019–2025). Whatever the count does, the composition of who controls agency M&A has been remarkably stable across the entire cycle.
| Buyer type | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE / Hybrid | 69% | 72% | 73% |
| Privately owned | 21% | 18% | 18% |
| Publicly traded | 6% | 8% | 9% |
| Banks / other | 3% | 2% | ~1% |
§ 03 · A reshuffled topNew leaders, old names fading.
The leaderboard kept turning. The current pace-setter pulled back about 23% from its 2024 peak but stayed at the top; a fast-rising consolidator more than doubled its count year over year, the fastest-growing top-tier buyer of the year. The decade's former volume leader bottomed near 20 deals — about 74% below its ten-year average — completing a four-year structural decline from its 122-deal peak. Several large platforms slowed as they digested their multi-billion-dollar acquisitions. The mega-deal wave that defined 2024 closed during the year.
- 695 deals, the lowest since 2019. About 24% below the five-year average.
- "More like 2019 than any year since." A return to the pre-pandemic baseline.
- The slowest Q4 since 2019. 157 deals, no year-end surge.
- A seven-year PE band. PE/Hybrid held ~71–78% from 2019 through 2025.
- The top kept turning. A new pace-setter and a fast riser; the old leader faded.
- The megadeal wave closed. Large platforms slowed to integrate.
Twelve years, one constant: the cycle moves the count, the book sets the value.
Read end to end, this series tells a single story. The deal count swung from 270 to 1,108 and back to 695 — driven by tax deadlines, cheap debt, and the cost of capital — while the thing that determines what an agency is worth never appeared in the volume chart at all. Two closing implications: the new normal is a healthy floor, not a downturn, with a deep, stable, capital-backed buyer field still active; and timing the cycle matters far less than preparing the book, because retention, organic growth, and clean financials command their multiple in any year on this chart. The market's weather changes constantly; your fundamentals are the climate.
The mega-deal year before it is the 2024 summary; the full arc is traced in historical evolution & deal volume.
Coverage. Announced (not closed) U.S. and Canadian insurance-distribution transactions, compiled from public sources.
Restatement. 2025 reflects the initial year-end report; like prior years, the count may revise upward as late deals surface.
Classification note. The public-broker share reflects a large buyer's acquisition closing into a publicly traded broker during the year; absent that, the public share would have remained near 5%.