2023 is where the market stopped reacting to the bubble and started revealing its true level — a number that looks like a collapse against 2021 but a record against the pre-pandemic norm. This is the data; the era it opens is the new-normal-era explainer.
§ 01 · The year in contextA drop that's really a reset.
2023 closed at 782 announced transactions, down 24% from 2022 — but roughly 11% above the 2018–2020 baseline. The most telling figure was seasonal: December accounted for just 10% of annual deals, against a 20% historical average and the 31% peak in 2021. The artificial year-end tax sprint that had distorted three straight years was simply gone.
| Year | Announced deals | YoY change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 774 | +19% |
| 2021 | 1,108 | +43% |
| 2022 | 1,031 | −7% |
| 2023 | 782 | −24% |
§ 02 · Who was buyingPE/Hybrid eases to 69%.
Capital-backed share fell from 76% to 69% as the most leverage-dependent buyers retreated, and the privately owned share climbed to about 21% — the highest of the tracked period. With debt expensive, buyers who didn't need it gained relative ground.
| Buyer type | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE / Hybrid | 76% | 74% | 69% |
| Privately owned | 16% | 17% | 21% |
| Publicly traded | 5% | 5% | 6% |
| Banks / other | 3% | 4% | 3% |
§ 03 · A concentrated contractionTwo buyers, half the decline.
The roughly 249-deal drop from 2022 was extraordinarily concentrated: just two of the formerly most acquisitive platforms accounted for more than half of it, as both sharply curtailed buying. The decade's long-running volume leader fell from first to fourth, off about two-thirds year over year, while a different consolidator rose to the top on a trailing-twelve-month basis. The leaderboard reshuffled — the market did not shrink so much as redistribute.
- 782 deals, down 24%. Yet ~11% above the pre-bubble baseline.
- The year-end rush vanished. December was 10% of deals, vs. a 20% norm.
- PE/Hybrid eased to 69%. Privately owned share rose to ~21%.
- The decline was concentrated. Two platforms drove more than half of it.
- The leaderboard reshuffled. A new buyer rose as the decade's leader retreated.
- A reset, not a collapse. The true post-bubble level revealed itself.
A −24% headline can hide an 11% structural gain.
2023 is the year to read the baseline, not the change. Two implications: the demand floor is durably higher than pre-pandemic, so a seller in the new normal still meets an active, well-capitalized buyer field — the bubble's exit didn't take the market with it; and the disappearance of the year-end rush means timing matters less, because deals now close on fundamentals and readiness rather than a tax-deadline scramble. The count fell to its true level; what a clean book is worth never depended on the count.
The correction before it is the 2022 summary; the mega-deal year that follows is the 2024 summary.
Coverage. Announced (not closed) U.S. and Canadian insurance-distribution transactions, compiled from public sources.
Restatement. 2023 was reported at 782 and later carried higher (~833) as late deals surfaced; 782 is used here for consistency with the year's own reporting.
Baseline comparison. The "11% above baseline" figure references the 2018–2020 pre-pandemic average.