2018–2019 is the terminal data point in the long channel-share series — and the canonical pre-COVID baseline. It is the snapshot the 2020–2022 deal bubble began from, and it crystallizes the decade's two opposing trends in their fullest form. The full arc is the channel-share trends tactical; this is the two-year reading.
§ 01 · Personal linesDirect response crosses 20%.
The independent-agency channel held — even nudged up — to 35.77% of personal lines by 2019, on regional strength. The decade's defining trade reached a milestone: direct response crossed 20% of personal lines (20.17%) as captive carriers fell to 44.06%, down a full four points across the late-decade window.
| Personal lines | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| IA channel combined | 35.19% | 35.77% |
| Captive / exclusive | 45.35% | 44.06% |
| Direct response | 18.28% | 20.17% |
§ 02 · By line, 2019The moat at a 25-year high.
The 2019 line-level cut shows the full divergence. Independent-agency commercial share reached 84.5% — a 25-year high — with captive commercial below 15% for the first time. In personal auto, direct response crossed 25% (25.76%), also a series first. Homeowners stayed firmly in the agency channel at nearly 48% IA share, direct response barely registering.
| 2019 share by line | IA channel | Captive | Direct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial lines | 84.50% | 14.85% | 0.65% |
| Homeowners | 47.71% | 44.84% | 7.47% |
| Private passenger auto | 30.76% | 43.49% | 25.76% |
§ 03 · The signalThe pre-bubble baseline.
This is the structural picture the modern M&A cycle launched from — the channel at its commercial peak and its personal-auto floor at once. Within commercial, the late-decade premium tailwind was uneven: commercial auto was the fastest-growing line on rate hardening, while workers' compensation contracted on soft pricing — a mix detail that shaped book-level revenue trajectories entering the COVID era. Sellers who held quality books here and listed into 2021–2022 sold into the highest-multiple environment in industry history.
- IA commercial share at a 25-year high. 84.5% in 2019; captive commercial below 15% for the first time.
- Direct-response personal auto crossed 25%. 25.76% — a series first.
- Direct-response personal lines crossed 20%. 20.17%, up ~4 points across the late decade.
- Homeowners stayed advisor-mediated. ~48% IA share, direct response at 7.5%.
- The pre-COVID baseline. The snapshot the 2020–2022 deal bubble began from.
The benchmark is the baseline, not the price.
Channel share doesn't value an agency — it frames the structural weather a book competes in. The 2019 endpoint is the cleanest statement of the thesis: a commercial-led book sits in an 84.5%-IA-share channel at its strongest level ever, while a personal-auto-heavy book sits in a line ceding a quarter of its premium to direct writers. For a buyer, line mix and the high-IA-share commercial states are the structural quality read; the geography of that moat is state-by-state IA share.
What this measures. Direct written premium by distribution channel, classified by IIABA from A.M. Best data into independent agency (national + regional), captive/exclusive, and direct response.
Selected lines. The commercial total uses the report's selected-lines methodology and excludes accident & health.
Restatement. A.M. Best restated 2017 and 2018 figures in this edition; numbers may differ slightly from earlier same-year reports.
Frequency. The report publishes annually (this was the 25th edition). Milly Books refreshes this brief with each new edition.