2015 deepens the 2014 commercial story: the independent-agency channel reached 83% of commercial lines, and at the state level the moat widened materially — a dozen states now wrote 85%+ of commercial premium through the channel. The full arc is the channel-share trends tactical; this is the single-year reading.
§ 01 · Personal linesHolding share, ceding auto.
The IA channel held 35.5% of personal lines — its strongest level of the decade — on regional carriers (25.9%) and a steadier national segment (9.6%). Captive carriers slipped further to 48.3%, and direct response advanced to 16.2%.
| Personal lines (2015) | Share |
|---|---|
| National IA carriers | 9.6% |
| Regional IA carriers | 25.9% |
| IA channel combined | 35.5% |
| Captive / exclusive | 48.3% |
| Direct response | 16.2% |
§ 02 · Commercial lines & auto83%, and a deepening state moat.
Independent-agency commercial share reached 83.0%, with captive carriers dipping toward 16% and direct response stuck below 1%. The state-level data showed the moat hardening: the number of states writing 85%+ of commercial premium through the channel jumped to a dozen. Direct-response personal auto, meanwhile, reached 21%.
| Channel | Commercial lines | Private passenger auto |
|---|---|---|
| IA channel combined | 83.0% | ~31% |
| Captive / exclusive | 16.1% | 48% |
| Direct response | 0.95% | 21% |
§ 03 · The signalThe moat is geographic, too.
2015 adds a geographic dimension to the commercial story. It's not just that the channel writes 83% of commercial premium nationally — it's that in a growing set of states it writes nearly nine of every ten commercial dollars. For an acquirer, that means the most defensible commercial markets are concentrated, identifiable, and getting more so. The state-level cut is the subject of state-by-state IA share.
- IA commercial share reached 83%. The moat deepening nationally.
- The state moat hardened. A dozen states writing 85%+ of commercial premium through the channel.
- IA personal-lines share at a decade high. 35.5%.
- Captive PL eroding toward 48%. The long decline continues.
- Direct-response personal auto at 21%. Past a fifth of the line.
The benchmark is the baseline, not the price.
Channel share doesn't value an agency — it frames the structural weather a book competes in. 2015's addition is geographic: a commercial-led book in a high-IA-share state sits in a near-monopoly channel that is still widening, which a buyer reads as durable, defensible revenue. The state map of that moat is state-by-state IA share; the long-run pattern is channel-share trends.
What this measures. Direct written premium by distribution channel, classified by IIABA from A.M. Best data into national IA, regional IA, captive/exclusive, and direct response.
Channel definition. A.M. Best has no native "direct response" category; IIABA assigns carriers to channels, so some affiliate premium is approximate.
Selected lines. From 2015 the report uses a selected-lines methodology; the commercial total excludes accident & health.
Frequency. The report publishes annually. Milly Books refreshes this brief with each new edition.