The Agency Universe Study is the whole-universe counterpart to the top-quartile Best Practices Study — it counts and sizes the entire independent-agency market. The 2024 data sizes the opportunity a marketplace addresses and paces the supply that a perpetuation wave releases. The sentiment side of the same study is the Future One sentiment tactical.
§ 01 · Universe size~39,000, concentrated at the bottom.
The independent-agency universe sits at roughly 39,000 agencies — down from a 1996 peak near 44,000, but structurally stable, having rebounded from a 2020 low near 36,000. The defining fact is the distribution: more than three-quarters of the universe is under $1.25M in revenue, and only 2.6% are above $10M.
| Revenue tier | Range | % of universe |
|---|---|---|
| Small | < $150K | 27.1% |
| Medium-small | $150K–$499K | 24.5% |
| Medium | $500K–$1.25M | 24.7% |
| Medium-large | $1.25M–$2.5M | 10.5% |
| Large | $2.5M–$9.9M | 10.5% |
| Jumbo | $10M+ | 2.6% |
§ 02 · Growth & M&AA growth year, and a market that buys.
2022–2023 was a near-universal growth year: 75% of agencies grew revenue, by an average of 26% — well above the prior period and consistent with the Best Practices "historic high-watermark" finding. M&A activity scales sharply with size: about 12% of the universe completed an acquisition in the prior two years, rising to 25% at the large tier and 29% at jumbo. And a third of the universe is planning M&A in the next two years.
| M&A activity | Completed (past 2 yrs) | Planning (next 2 yrs) |
|---|---|---|
| Universe average | 12% | 33% |
| Large ($2.5M–$9.9M) | 25% | — |
| Jumbo ($10M+) | 29% | 45% |
| Small (< $150K) | 9% | 30% |
Notably, "acquisition of book only" (17%) runs nearly even with "acquisition of book plus operations" (21%) — fractional and full-agency deals are almost equally common in the planning data.
§ 03 · The perpetuation cliffReal, but paced.
Among owner-operated agencies, the ownership-change timeline corrects a common overstatement: only 6% expect a change within a year, and about 33% within five — essentially flat against the prior wave. The demographic wave is structurally real, but it arrives as a multi-year supply curve rather than a single-year shock. The slow-cliff pacing is the operational read behind the broader silver tsunami.
- ~39,000 agencies, stable. Down from a 1996 peak of 44,000 but rebounded from a 2020 low.
- 76% under $1.25M. The long tail is the universe; only 2.6% are jumbo.
- A near-universal growth year. 75% grew revenue in 2022–2023, by an average 26%.
- M&A scales with size. 12% universe → 29% jumbo completed; 33% universe planning.
- Fractional deals are mainstream. Book-only acquisitions (17%) nearly match full-agency (21%).
- Perpetuation is paced. 6% within a year, 33% within five.
The benchmark is the baseline, not the price.
Universe data doesn't value an agency — it frames the market a book trades in. Two reads matter for any buyer or seller: the supply is concentrated in the under-$1.25M tier, where three-quarters of agencies sit, and it releases over years — roughly a third of owner-operated agencies expect a change within five, only 6% within one. A seller weighing timing reads that as a multi-year window, not a now-or-never decision; a buyer reads it as a deep, slow-flowing pipeline.
The whole-universe technology and carrier picture is the companion Future One technology & carrier data.
What the study measures. The Agency Universe Study is designed to represent the entire independent-agency universe, not a self-selected top-performer cohort; the count is anchored to a Dun & Bradstreet estimate.
Self-reported intent. M&A and ownership-change rates are intent measures — directional supply pacing, not transaction forecasts.
Cadence. Biennial since 1983; the 2024 wave reports 2022–2023 results plus 2024 expectations.
Frequency. Milly Books refreshes this brief with each new wave.