The Future One Agency Universe Study is the canonical biennial whole-universe survey of U.S. independent insurance agencies. Published since 1983 by Future One (a partnership between the Big "I" and 14 carrier partners), it covers the entire IA universe — not the top-quartile cohort that BPS samples, nor the line-of-business premium splits that the channel-share reports measure. The 2024 wave surveyed 1,269 agents and anchored its universe-size estimates to Dun & Bradstreet's commercial database. This page covers the load-bearing universe-level facts.
39,000 agencies, stabilizing.
Future One's defining output is the universe count. The 2024 wave places the U.S. independent-agency universe at approximately 39,000 — down from 40,000 in 2022 and from a 1996 peak of 44,000. The trajectory matters: this is not a steep secular decline. The long-term contraction (roughly 1995–2020) was followed by a post-COVID resurgence (40,000 in 2022) and is now stabilizing near 39,000. Any analysis predicated on a collapsing IA universe misreads the trajectory.
A long tail at the bottom.
The universe is overwhelmingly concentrated in small agencies by count.
| Revenue band | Share of universe |
|---|---|
| Under $150K | 27% |
| Under $1.25M (cumulative) | 76% |
| Jumbo ($10M+) | 2.6% |
The "long tail" of small agencies dominates the count even as it represents a small share of total premium. This is the empirical foundation of the 84%-fragmentation framing in the broader market analysis — the universe is composed overwhelmingly of sub-$1.25M agencies, and the M&A supply that feeds consolidation comes disproportionately from this tail. The jumbo tier ($10M+) is just 2.6% of agencies by count but a large share of premium and the focal point of the largest transactions.
Real, but slow-moving.
Future One's perpetuation data is the empirical anchor for the Silver Tsunami narrative — and it both confirms and calibrates it.
| M&A / perpetuation activity | Share of universe |
|---|---|
| Completed M&A in past 2 years | 12% |
| Planning M&A in next 2 years | 33% |
| Jumbo tier planning M&A | 45% |
| Expect ownership change within 5 years | 33% |
| Expect ownership change within 1 year | 6% |
The Silver Tsunami is structurally accurate but timeline-paced. 33% expect ownership change within 5 years; only 6% within the next year. Material supply hits the market over a 3–5 year window — not as a single-year shock.
Two implications. First, M&A is now universal strategy, not outlier — 33% of all agencies plan some M&A activity in the next two years, rising to 45% at the jumbo tier. M&A is no longer concentrated only among PE-backed aggregators. Second, the perpetuation cliff is real but paced: the 5-year vs. 1-year split (33% vs. 6%) means supply arrives over a multi-year window, which is why the deal-volume new normal is elevated-but-sustained rather than a single-year spike.
Hard market, direct-purchase, technology.
Future One's sentiment data captures what the whole universe — not just the top quartile — thinks about the forces reshaping the channel. The 2024 signals:
- Direct-purchase threat is mainstream. 51% of IAs expect significant impact from direct personal-lines purchase through carriers within 2 years — consensus-level concern, no longer fringe.
- Carrier pain points intensifying. 56% identify "carrier commitment to market" as a top challenge; top carrier-priority asks are new PL products (57%, +9pp), cyber risk (31%, +9pp), and API/AMS integration (30%).
- Technology adoption is near-universal. 95% use at least one electronic technology; e-signature adoption reached 70% (+9pp from 2022).
Future One is the source for any whole-universe claim — count, size distribution, perpetuation timeline, sentiment. It complements BPS (top-quartile operating benchmarks) and the channel-share data (line-of-business premium splits). The broader agency benchmarks unified reference Pillar covers the routing logic across all four datasets, and the M&A market intelligence Pillar uses Future One's perpetuation data as the supply-side foundation.