The value of multi-year data is that it strips the distortion out. A 2021 or 2022 figure read in isolation overstates the baseline; a 2020 figure understates it. The trend shows which gains were real and which were the bubble — and it's the right lens for both seller positioning and buy-side diligence. The point-in-time data behind it sits in the BPS methodology explainer.
§ 01 · The arcBaseline, dip, peak, normal.
Four periods define the window: a pre-COVID baseline (2018–2019), the pandemic disruption (2020), the early-recovery surge (2021–2022), and the mature recovery (2023–2024). Each headline metric traces the same shape, varying mainly in how far it swung.
| Metric (representative tier) | 2019 | 2022 peak | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | ~18% | ~20% | ~19% |
| Organic growth | ~6% | ~10% | ~6.5% |
| Revenue per employee | ~$165K | ~$180K | ~$185K |
| M&A multiple (study avg) | ~7.5x | ~9.0x | ~8.0x |
§ 02 · What COVID didDip, then overshoot.
2020 cut margins 2–3 points and roughly halved organic growth as new-business pipelines froze — though retention held, and compensation didn't fall because agencies prioritized keeping staff. Then 2021–2022 overshot: pent-up demand and a hardening rate environment drove record organic growth and the highest margins on record. The COVID recovery index (2019 = 100) captures it cleanly — EBITDA hit 112 in 2022, organic growth spiked to 160, and both settled back toward baseline-plus by 2024.
§ 03 · What stuckThe durable gains.
Not everything reverted. Productivity is the most durable post-COVID gain — revenue per employee sits about 20% above the 2019 baseline, the lasting dividend of accelerated technology adoption and remote-work efficiency. Compensation ratios improved 4–6 points across every tier, as revenue growth outran wage inflation. And EBITDA settled at roughly 108% of baseline — a real, validated step up, not a bubble artifact. Commercial lines also consistently out-grew personal lines by 2–6 points, with the spread widest in the 2022 hard market and narrowing since.
One year is a number; seven years is a story. The trend is the only honest way to tell a durable gain from a pandemic sugar high — and the difference is exactly what a buyer underwrites.
§ 04 · The seller's recalibrationFrom peak to normal.
The trend with the most direct consequence is the multiple: a study-average ~7.5x in 2019 rose to a 9x peak in 2022 and normalized to ~8x by 2024. For a seller anchored to peak-era expectations, that's a recalibration — though above-median performers (organic growth over 8%, EBITDA over 22%, revenue per employee over $200K, retention over 92%) still command premiums above the average. The diligence discipline this enables is using a 3-year average rather than a single year, the subject of the BPS variance guide, and the multiple math itself is in modern valuation methodologies.
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Terminology on this shelf
- COVID recovery index
- A metric tracked against a 2019 = 100 baseline to measure the depth of dip and strength of recovery.
- EBITDA margin
- Normalized operating profit as a percent of net revenue — up to ~108% of its 2019 level by 2024.
- Organic growth
- Growth excluding acquisitions — halved in 2020, peaked near 10–12% in 2022, normalized to 5–8%.
- 3-year average
- The trend-adjusted comparison that smooths single-year distortion — the diligence standard.
- Multiple normalization
- The study-average M&A multiple's move from a 2022 peak near 9x back toward ~8x.