Skip to main content
milly logo
Tactical · prose B07 For Buyers · Financial Due Diligence

Earn-outs, holdbacks & seller notes — structure beats price.

The number on the letter of intent is not the price you'll pay. What matters is how the money flows — when, on what conditions, and who carries the risk if the business turns out different than promised. A $3M deal at all cash is a very different deal from $3M split across cash, holdback, earn-out, and seller note.

Buyers fixate on the headline number; the real question is under what conditions, and when. Picture a $3M deal paid 100% cash: you wire it on day one, then discover $500K of uncollected receivables the seller called current, then watch three major clients cancel and owe $200K in clawbacks — and you have no leverage, because the seller's account is already settled. Now structure the same $3M as 60% cash, a 15% holdback, a 10% earn-out, and a 10% seller note: the receivable shortfall comes out of the holdback, indemnification covers the clawbacks, and the earn-out only pays if retention held. Same price, risk split entirely differently. That is the point of structure.

§ 01 · The mechanismsThree ways to split the risk.

MechanismTypical sizeTermWhat it does
Earn-out10–25%2–3 yrsPays only if retention or EBITDA targets are met
Holdback / escrow10–15%12–24 moReserve for undisclosed liabilities and breaches
Seller note10–30%3–5 yrsSeller-financed, subordinated to bank debt, 5–8% interest

Each does a distinct job. An earn-out is for uncertainty about the future — a departing key producer, heavy owner-dependence, a gap between the seller's growth story and yours. A holdback is for the past — surprises that surface after close. A seller note is for the capital stack — filling the gap when the bank won't lend the whole price, and signaling the seller's own confidence in the business.

§ 02 · Earn-outsContingent pay, and the games to block.

An earn-out pays a slice of the price after close if the agency hits a metric — most cleanly a retention threshold of 85–95% of commissions over the measurement period, because retention directly measures your success. Three traps recur. The front-load game: a seller accelerates renewal billing before close so the year is already "banked"; defend with a lookback baseline averaging the trailing 12 months. Rate-increase gaming: a hard market lifts commissions 15% and the seller claims retention they didn't earn; index to policy counts or normalize for rate. And measurement control: never let the seller own the numbers — tie the earn-out to your management system, carrier statements, or a third-party audit, with a neutral arbiter for disputes.

Journal axiom · 1 of 2

The cleanest earn-out reads like this: "$2M upfront, plus $300K if retention stays above 90% for 24 months, measured against the trailing 12-month baseline from objective carrier data." Specific metric, specific window, specific source — no room for the seller to redefine success after the fact.

§ 03 · HoldbacksInsurance for what surfaces later.

A holdback parks a percentage of the price — typically 10–15% — in third-party escrow, released after 12–24 months minus any claims. It is not exotic; in a professional deal it's standard. It covers undisclosed liabilities (lawsuits, regulatory fines, tax adjustments), receivables that don't collect, pre-close commission clawbacks, breaches of the seller's representations, and working-capital shortfalls. Three things to insist on: a hold period of at least 18 months (sellers push for 12, but many clawback exposures run 12–18 and some liabilities surface later — go to 24 for higher-risk books); that the holdback is additional cash, not the earnest-money deposit relabeled; and that a neutral agent holds it, never the seller's own account.

§ 04 · Seller notesFinancing the gap, aligning the seller.

A seller note is a promissory note where the seller finances part of the price — typically 10–30% of the deal over 3–5 years at 5–8% interest, subordinated to bank debt. It fills the gap when the bank won't lend 100%, and it does double duty as a confidence signal: a seller willing to carry paper is a seller who believes the business will perform. It also preserves your early-period cash flow, lifting the post-close debt-service coverage ratio when it matters most.

Used together, these mechanisms turn a single risky wire into a structured, defensible deal. The discipline is simple to state and easy to abandon under deal pressure: pay a fair price, but make the contingent and held-back portions carry the risks you can't fully verify at close. A seller who agrees to a fair price but resists every holdback and earn-out tied to retention is telling you something about their own confidence — and that signal is itself worth pricing in.

Terminology on this shelf

Earn-out
A contingent payment, typically 10–25% over 2–3 years, paid only if the agency hits a retention or EBITDA target.
Holdback / escrow
10–15% of the price held by a neutral agent for 12–24 months, released minus any indemnification claims.
Seller note
Seller financing of 10–30% over 3–5 years at 5–8% interest, subordinated to bank debt.
Lookback baseline
An earn-out baseline averaging the trailing 12 months, defending against pre-close billing acceleration.
Indemnification
The framework tying these mechanisms together — the seller's promise to cover defined post-close losses.
Subordination
The seller note ranking behind bank debt for repayment, a standard lender condition.

From the buyer theme

One piece every other Tuesday.

The next long-form piece in your inbox the morning it goes live. No marketing. Unsubscribe in one click.

Anonymous by default · One click to unsubscribe